SKN | Gold Revisited: What UBS and BofA’s Kinross Call Really Means for Swiss-Based Wealth

Key Takeaways for Private Banking Clients

• Gold demand is structural, not speculative, driven by private wealth and central banks.

• Swiss custody regains relevance as currency risk and fiscal pressure intensify into 2026.

• Mining equities amplify gold exposure, but introduce operational and jurisdictional risk.

• Physical gold and miners serve different roles in sophisticated portfolios—and should not be conflated.

Gold has reasserted itself as a strategic asset rather than a tactical trade, and recent actions by UBS and Bank of America on Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC) reinforce that shift. For High Net Worth Individuals banking in Switzerland, the implications extend far beyond a single equity recommendation.

Why Gold’s Support Looks Durable into 2026

UBS recently raised its price target on Kinross from $31 to $33, maintaining a Buy rating. More important than the incremental revision is the underlying thesis: gold’s strength entering 2025 has been supported by private investors and central banks, not speculative excess.

From an insider Swiss banking perspective, this distinction matters. Demand driven by reserve diversification, geopolitical hedging, and long-term capital preservation tends to persist across cycles. UBS notes that while enthusiasm briefly peaked in early autumn, the macro backdrop over the next 6–12 months—high public debt, fragmented geopolitics, and currency uncertainty—points to continued accumulation rather than a 2026 reversal.

Bank of America: Gold as a Core Macro Allocation

Bank of America’s outlook is more assertive. The bank forecasts gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with strategist Michael Hartnett describing gold as a “top trade for 2026,” targeting roughly a 10% return. BofA argues that the macro forces driving gold—fiscal dominance, central bank balance-sheet expansion, and geopolitical realignment—remain firmly in place.

While extreme upside scenarios are not base cases for conservative allocators, they highlight why gold is increasingly treated as a monetary asset, not merely a commodity.

Why Kinross Attracts Analyst Conviction

In reviewing North American gold miners, BofA identified Kinross as offering among the strongest leverage to rising gold prices. Both EBITDA and net asset value (NAV) show high sensitivity to a 10% increase in bullion prices.

For sophisticated investors, this leverage is a double-edged sword. In a rising gold environment, miners like Kinross can significantly outperform physical gold. However, they also introduce operational, geopolitical, and execution risk, given Kinross’ footprint across the US, Brazil, Mauritania, Chile, and Canada.

The Swiss Private Banking Lens: Allocation Matters More Than Headlines

For Swiss-booked wealth, the real question is not whether gold goes to $5,000—but how gold exposure is implemented. Physical gold held in Swiss custody remains the lowest-risk expression of the thesis, offering liquidity, discretion, and balance-sheet insulation.

Mining equities such as Kinross may complement that core holding for clients with higher risk tolerance and a clear understanding of equity volatility. They should be viewed as return enhancers, not substitutes for bullion.

Closing Insight

Gold is being repriced as insurance against fiscal and monetary uncertainty. Swiss custody restores its strategic relevance in this environment. The discipline lies not in chasing upside forecasts, but in structuring exposure so wealth remains protected, portable, and resilient—regardless of how aggressive the gold narrative becomes.

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