SKN | Our Outlook for 2026: What Global Instability Means for Swiss-Booked Wealth

Instability paired with solid returns defined 2025, and that paradox is unlikely to disappear in 2026. Geopolitics, public debt, and policy uncertainty continue to reshape global capital flows, yet markets have proven remarkably resilient. For High Net Worth Individuals banking in Switzerland, the relevant question is not whether volatility persists—but how it translates into portfolio security, currency exposure, and long-term structuring.

United States: The Erosion of Rate Advantage

The US remains a pillar of global growth, but its monetary dominance is fading. The Federal Reserve is expected to pause rate cuts through much of the first half of 2026 before easing later in the year. This policy stance supports corporate investment, yet tariffs and political uncertainty continue to weigh on growth sentiment.

For Swiss-based clients, the implication is clear: the US interest-rate premium that supported the dollar is narrowing. Currency risk, rather than equity volatility, becomes the more relevant concern. Portfolios with unhedged USD exposure should be reassessed, particularly where liabilities or future spending are euro- or franc-based.

Euro Area: Stability Without Momentum

The euro area is likely to maintain current growth levels rather than accelerate. Improved business confidence, lower rates, and government-led investment provide a stabilizing backdrop, while reduced trade uncertainty supports exporters.

Public finances remain a structural issue, but elevated savings among corporates and households reduce near-term systemic risk. For wealth management clients, this favors income-oriented strategies and high-quality credit over cyclical equity bets. Europe’s role in portfolios remains one of diversification and yield stability, not growth leadership.

Switzerland: Quiet Strength in a Noisy World

Switzerland enters 2026 from a position of relative strength. A recent trade agreement with the US has improved visibility for exporters, prompting an upgraded growth forecast of 1.2%. The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain policy rates at zero, with negative rates held in reserve for extreme scenarios.

For private banking clients, this reinforces Switzerland’s role as a capital-preservation jurisdiction. Stable monetary policy, strong institutions, and predictable regulation continue to justify Swiss custody as the core of global wealth structures.

China and Emerging Markets: Structural, Not Cyclical

China’s shift toward self-sufficiency and technological leadership continues, reshaping global supply chains. Growth is slower but more internally driven. Meanwhile, emerging markets are structurally stronger than in past cycles, with healthier reserves and improved governance.

Exposure here should be selective and intentional—focused on balance-sheet quality rather than macro optimism.

Closing Insights

2026 is unlikely to reward aggressive positioning. For sophisticated clients, success lies in currency discipline, jurisdictional diversification, and institutional strength. Swiss banking’s advantage is not return maximization, but resilience—ensuring wealth remains protected, flexible, and transferable across generations in an increasingly fragmented world.

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