SKN | Intel Back in the Spotlight as HSBC Doubles Target Ahead of Earnings Test

Key Points

• HSBC raised its Intel price target to $50 from $26 and upgraded the stock to Hold ahead of earnings.

• Multiple firms lifted targets as server CPU demand tied to “agentic AI” accelerates.

• Intel shares are trading near four-year highs, with expectations centered on Q4 results and 2026 guidance.

Shares of Intel continue to attract renewed investor attention as optimism builds around data center demand and the company’s turnaround narrative. The latest catalyst came when HSBC doubled its price target on Intel to $50 from $26 and upgraded the stock from Reduce to Hold, marking a significant shift in sentiment just days before earnings.

The move adds to a growing list of analyst revisions that suggest the market is reassessing Intel’s medium-term earnings power rather than focusing solely on past execution challenges.

Analyst Revisions Reflect Improving Confidence

HSBC’s upgrade was followed by a string of supportive actions across Wall Street. Seaport Research lifted Intel to Buy with a $65 target, while Susquehanna raised its target to $45. Analysts point to a sharper-than-expected rebound in server CPU demand, driven by AI-related workloads, as well as improving engagement in Intel’s foundry business.

HSBC now expects fiscal 2026 server shipments to rise 15%–20%, well above broader market assumptions. This divergence has helped shift the conversation from skepticism around execution to upside risk in volumes and pricing.

Turnaround Narrative Gains Traction

Intel’s rally has been striking. The stock has surged more than 140% over the past year and continues to set multi-year highs in early 2026 as investors price in progress across products, partnerships, and balance-sheet support. Strategic backing from major industry players and government-linked initiatives has strengthened confidence in management’s restructuring plan.

On the product front, Intel has begun shipping new PC processors built on its 18A process, with reported yield improvements supporting a more constructive view of its manufacturing roadmap. Foundry momentum has also improved, with indications of tightening capacity in certain server segments.

What the Market Is Watching This Quarter

Intel is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results after the market close on January 22. Consensus expectations call for modest year-on-year declines in revenue and earnings, placing added emphasis on forward guidance rather than the headline numbers themselves.

Investors will focus on management commentary around 2026 demand trends, particularly in the Data Center & AI segment, as well as any signals on pricing power, margins, and the pace of foundry customer adoption. Improved gross margin trajectory or stronger-than-expected outlook language could reinforce the stock’s recent momentum.

Valuation and Risk Balance

Despite the sharp rally, Intel’s valuation sits broadly in line with semiconductor peers on cash-flow metrics and modestly below on sales multiples. This has supported the view that downside may be limited unless earnings or guidance disappoint materially.

At the same time, skepticism remains. Some analysts continue to caution that PC market pressures, competitive dynamics, and execution risk could cap upside if expectations become too optimistic.

Forward-Looking Perspective

Intel’s upcoming earnings represent a pivotal moment for a stock that has already priced in meaningful improvement. Analyst upgrades suggest growing confidence in AI-driven server demand and manufacturing progress, but confirmation from management will be critical to sustaining momentum.

For a confidential discussion on how semiconductor cycle exposure and AI-driven infrastructure demand can be evaluated within a broader technology allocation, contact our senior advisory team.