SKN | Barclays Stays Cautious on Tesla as Robotaxi Milestone Meets Scaling Reality

Barclays has maintained a Hold rating on Tesla, Inc., even after lifting its price target modestly to $360, reflecting a more balanced view as operational progress in autonomy collides with questions around scale and execution.

The updated stance underscores a widening gap between technological milestones and near-term commercial impact.

Autonomous Progress, But Not Yet at Scale

Barclays analyst Dan Levy pointed to Tesla’s recent launch of robotaxi rides without safety monitors in Austin as a meaningful technical step. The move marks the first time since mid-2025 that Tesla has offered fully autonomous rides to the public, bringing it closer in capability to rivals such as Waymo and Zoox.

However, Barclays stressed that the rollout remains limited in practice. After seven months, Tesla’s Austin robotaxi fleet reportedly consists of only 30 to 50 vehicles in total, with roughly 10 operating autonomously at any given time. This falls well short of Elon Musk’s earlier ambition of deploying 500 vehicles by the end of 2025.

For Barclays, the conclusion is clear: while autonomy capability is advancing, the pace of deployment is insufficient to materially alter Tesla’s near-term earnings profile.

Diverging Analyst Views on Upside

Not all analysts share Barclays’ caution. On the same day, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated a Buy rating on Tesla with a significantly higher $510 price target, signaling confidence in the long-term monetization of autonomy and AI-driven mobility.

The divergence highlights a familiar fault line in Tesla coverage: whether investors should value the company primarily on near-term delivery metrics or on optionality tied to autonomy, robotics, and platform economics.

Competitive Context Matters

By offering fully autonomous rides without monitors, Tesla has narrowed a long-standing gap with established autonomous players. Yet competitors like Waymo and Zoox continue to operate more mature fleets with clearer regulatory frameworks and operational depth.

Barclays’ view suggests that catching up on capability is only the first step. Demonstrating reliability at scale, navigating regulation, and translating autonomy into recurring cash flow remain the harder challenges.

Outlook

Barclays’ Hold rating reflects a stock where much of the autonomy optimism is already embedded in valuation, while execution risks persist. The firm sees limited near-term catalysts unless Tesla can materially accelerate robotaxi deployment and prove commercial viability beyond pilot-scale operations.

For investors, the message is nuanced: Tesla’s autonomy story is progressing, but the market may be running ahead of what current deployment levels can justify. The next leg for the stock will likely depend less on technical milestones and more on evidence that autonomy can scale into a durable, profitable business line.