Key Points:
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Goldman Sachs expects Nvidia to deliver a roughly $2 billion revenue beat in fiscal Q4.
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The bank’s price target implies around 35% upside, but warns much of the near-term upside may already be priced in.
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Investor focus is shifting from Q4 results toward 2026–2027 guidance and demand visibility.
Goldman Sachs Turns More Precise on Nvidia Ahead of Results
With earnings scheduled for February 25, Nvidia is once again at the centre of Wall Street’s attention. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the AI chipmaker is poised to beat expectations meaningfully, forecasting fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $67.3 billion — about $2 billion above consensus — alongside earnings that should also top Street estimates.
In a research note, Goldman said it is running 8% ahead of consensus on first-quarter revenue and 5% to 9% above the Street on earnings per share for the fourth and first quarters. The call reinforces Nvidia’s track record of execution, even as competition from AMD and Broadcom intensifies.
A High Bar After Years of AI-Driven Outperformance
The challenge for Nvidia is no longer simply beating quarterly numbers. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 ignited a wave of AI investment, Nvidia has delivered repeated earnings surprises, pushing its valuation sharply higher and embedding optimistic assumptions into the stock.
Goldman cautions that this success cuts both ways. With Nvidia widely held across institutional portfolios, incremental upside may depend less on Q4 strength and more on what management says about demand beyond 2026. The firm argues that upside to calendar 2026 estimates is “largely priced in,” making revenue visibility into 2027 the next major driver of share price performance.
What Could Still Move the Stock
Despite that caution, Goldman maintains a $250 price target, implying roughly 35% upside from early February levels. The bank points to several catalysts that could re-ignite momentum, including stronger-than-expected hyperscaler capital expenditure, upside to Nvidia’s own datacenter revenue guidance, and rising demand from non-hyperscaler customers such as large language model developers and sovereign governments.
Progress on competitive positioning also matters. As hyperscalers experiment with custom ASIC chips and AMD’s offerings grow more capable, Goldman says reassurance around Nvidia’s ecosystem advantages — particularly CUDA — could help steady investor confidence. Any positive commentary on China demand, following recent regulatory approvals, or clear progress on the ramp of Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin chips would also be closely watched.
Long-Term Growth Assumptions Remain Ambitious
Goldman’s longer-dated model remains aggressive. The bank expects Rubin GPUs to begin shipping in the second half of 2026, supporting strong revenue and earnings growth through at least 2028. Its projections call for revenue rising to more than $500 billion by 2028, with earnings per share climbing into double digits over the same period.
That trajectory underscores why Nvidia remains central to the AI investment narrative — and why expectations remain exceptionally high.
How Investors May Read This Setup
The near-term earnings event is unlikely to be a simple pass-or-fail moment. A strong quarter may be necessary, but not sufficient, to push the stock materially higher. Guidance, demand visibility, and confidence in the next wave of AI infrastructure spending are set to carry more weight than backward-looking beats.
For investors, Goldman’s updated view frames Nvidia as a company still benefiting from powerful secular tailwinds, but one where the next leg of upside increasingly depends on convincing markets that growth remains durable well into the second half of the decade.
