SKN | HSBC Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: Estimates Edge Higher Ahead of Feb 25 Report

Consensus Expectations

HSBC Holdings plc is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 25, 2026. Consensus forecasts point to Q4 revenue of $12.68 billion and earnings per share of $0.21. For the full year 2025, analysts expect revenue of $51.06 billion and EPS of $0.91.

Importantly, estimate revisions have been trending upward over the past 90 days. Full-year 2025 revenue expectations increased from $50.76 billion to $51.06 billion, while 2026 revenue estimates also moved higher. Earnings projections followed a similar pattern, rising modestly for both 2025 and 2026. Upward revisions typically signal improving sentiment around operating trends, margin resilience, or capital deployment visibility.

Looking Back: Q3 Performance

In the previous quarter ending September 30, 2025, HSBC delivered revenue of $13.07 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by roughly 2.35%.

However, earnings per share of $0.21 fell short of the $0.24 estimate, representing a miss of approximately 12%. Despite the earnings shortfall, shares rose 4.6% following the release, suggesting investors focused more on revenue strength and broader strategic positioning. The mixed result highlighted ongoing cost, credit, or margin sensitivities even as topline momentum remained intact.

Price Targets and Valuation Signals

Based on one-year targets from 13 analysts, the average price target stands at $12.08, with a range between $10.30 and $14.50. Relative to the current price of $12.93, the average target implies modest downside.

Separately, valuation models suggest a more conservative intrinsic estimate, indicating a wider potential gap relative to the current share price.

Broker sentiment remains moderately constructive, with the average recommendation equivalent to an “Outperform” stance on the standard 1–5 rating scale.

Key Areas to Watch

For the upcoming release, investors will likely focus on several themes. Net interest income trends remain critical, particularly as global rate dynamics evolve. Expense discipline and cost-to-income ratios will also draw attention, especially in light of prior earnings pressure. Capital return guidance, loan growth in Asia, and commentary on geopolitical exposure may further influence market reaction.

Outlook

HSBC enters its Q4 earnings report with slightly improving analyst expectations and a market positioning that reflects cautious optimism rather than aggressive upside pricing.

If revenue resilience continues and earnings execution stabilizes, shares could find support. Conversely, another earnings miss or weaker forward guidance may reinforce valuation caution.

For confidential discussions regarding global bank earnings positioning, rate sensitivity modeling, and cross-border financial sector allocation strategies, our senior advisory team is available for discreet consultation tailored to institutional and international mandates.