SKN | Bank of America Projects a $3.2 Trillion Semiconductor Market as AI Infrastructure Demand Holds Firm

Key Takeaways:

• Bank of America projects the global semiconductor market will reach $3.2 trillion by 2030, compared with $1.7 trillion in 2026.
• The bank sees continued strength in customer orders, long-term agreements, capacity commitments and semiconductor pricing despite concerns about an AI infrastructure slowdown.
• Memory is expected to become the largest growth engine, with sales projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030 from $937 billion in 2026.
• BofA’s analysis points to sustained demand across computing, networking, memory and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Bank of America is taking a long-duration view of the semiconductor cycle, projecting that the global market could nearly double to $3.2 trillion by 2030 from $1.7 trillion in 2026. The forecast reflects the bank’s assessment that artificial intelligence infrastructure, memory requirements and data-center investment remain structurally stronger than recent concerns about a slowdown would suggest.

BofA Sees Demand Holding Despite AI Spending Concerns

The central message from Bank of America’s semiconductor analysis is that current demand indicators have not yet deteriorated. Analysts led by Vivek Arya said they see no signs of slowing in customer orders, long-term agreements, capacity commitments or semiconductor pricing.

That assessment gives BofA’s market forecast a more operational foundation than simply assuming that AI capital expenditure will continue indefinitely. The bank is monitoring actual commitments across the semiconductor supply chain, including demand for computing, networking and memory capacity.

Memory Emerges as the Largest Structural Growth Engine

Bank of America expects memory sales to increase from $937 billion in 2026 to $1.8 trillion by 2030. That makes memory one of the most important components of the bank’s broader semiconductor expansion thesis as increasingly sophisticated AI systems require greater data-processing and storage capacity.

BofA also projects core semiconductor sales to reach $1.35 trillion by 2030 from $739 billion in 2026. Server-related semiconductor sales are forecast to rise to $848 billion from $359 billion, reflecting the expanding infrastructure required to support AI workloads.

Manufacturing Capacity Is Becoming Part of the Opportunity

The bank’s forecast extends beyond chips themselves. BofA expects wafer-fabrication-equipment spending to more than double, reaching approximately $359.8 billion by 2030 from $155.9 billion in 2026.

This is strategically significant because sustained semiconductor demand ultimately requires additional manufacturing capacity. For Bank of America, the investment cycle therefore encompasses not only chip designers and producers, but also the equipment infrastructure needed to expand global fabrication capabilities.

Why BofA Is Watching 2027 and 2028

BofA’s analysis suggests that capacity visibility remains relatively strong. The bank expects 2027 to remain heavily booked or contracted across computing, networking and memory vendors, while 2028 could remain tight as demand expands across CPUs, accelerators and advanced optical technologies.

For sophisticated investors, the important signal is not simply the projected $3.2 trillion market size. It is the breadth of the underlying demand indicators BofA is tracking. GPU rental pricing, memory conditions, customer commitments and future capacity bookings will remain important measures of whether the bank’s long-term semiconductor thesis is strengthening or beginning to lose momentum.

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