SKN | ING Identifies Politics, AI and Energy as the Forces That Could Redefine Global Markets in 2027

Key Takeaways:

• ING’s 2027 global outlook identifies political realignment, artificial intelligence and control over energy resources as the principal forces shaping the global economic environment.
• The bank expects AI investment to broaden beyond semiconductors and data centres into electricity grids, power generation and supporting infrastructure.
• ING’s relatively constructive growth outlook depends significantly on lower energy prices; persistent inflation could force central banks to tighten monetary policy further.

ING is positioning political influence, technological leadership and energy security at the centre of its global economic assessment for 2027. In its November outlook, titled “Power Play,” the Dutch banking group argues that the changing balance of power across the United States, Europe and strategic industries will increasingly influence growth, inflation, monetary policy and financial markets. The assessment, led by Carsten Brzeski, ING’s Global Head of Macro, provides a framework for understanding how political decisions and infrastructure constraints could affect the investment environment over the coming year.

ING Places Political Realignment at the Centre of Its 2027 Outlook

ING identifies the political environment in Washington as a significant variable following the U.S. midterm elections. A Congress with greater capacity to challenge the administration could influence economic priorities, trade policy and the direction of government spending. For global markets, the implications extend beyond domestic American politics, particularly where decisions affect international trade, geopolitical relationships and cross-border capital flows.

Europe faces a separate period of political uncertainty. ING highlights upcoming elections in France, Italy, Spain, Poland and potentially Germany as developments that could influence government stability and economic policy. Greater political fragmentation could complicate fiscal decisions and delay structural reforms, particularly as European economies continue to manage high energy costs and competitiveness challenges.

For ING, these developments are not isolated political events. They represent a broader struggle over economic influence, with consequences for currencies, sovereign borrowing costs, trade relationships and regional investment conditions.

AI Investment Is Moving Beyond Technology Companies

ING expects artificial intelligence to remain a major economic driver, although the extraordinary pace of investment by major U.S. technology companies could moderate in 2027. The bank does not interpret slower growth in technology spending as an automatic reversal of the AI cycle. Instead, it expects investment to spread into electricity generation, transmission networks, data-centre infrastructure and industrial applications.

This transition has important implications for the wider economy. Companies supplying power equipment, grid infrastructure and industrial technology could become increasingly relevant to the next phase of AI development. However, ING also recognizes that the benefits will depend on whether businesses can translate substantial infrastructure spending into measurable productivity improvements.

The bank’s separate AI assessment identifies financing as an emerging consideration. As investment expands beyond the largest technology companies’ cash flows towards debt and private credit, the financial consequences of disappointing returns could become more significant.

Energy Prices Could Determine the Direction of Monetary Policy

One of ING’s most important assumptions is that energy prices will ease sufficiently to reduce inflationary pressure. Under this scenario, central banks could maintain a more restrained policy stance, allowing economic activity and investment to continue without additional monetary tightening.

The alternative is less favourable. Persistently expensive energy would increase operating costs, complicate inflation control and potentially force central banks to raise interest rates more aggressively. ING warns that this could expose vulnerabilities beyond the technology sector, particularly among traditional industries already competing with data centres for electricity and capital.

Europe remains particularly exposed because its structural energy-cost disadvantage could weaken industrial competitiveness even if geopolitical tensions moderate.

ING’s Base Case Requires Careful Monitoring

ING’s central scenario anticipates another year of resilient global growth, with moderating AI investment, broader infrastructure spending and easing inflation supporting a relatively constructive environment. However, the bank also presents alternative scenarios involving political disruption, an AI-driven market correction and renewed energy pressures. These risk scenarios are not equivalent to its central forecast.

For internationally diversified investors and families managing cross-border wealth, the interaction between energy prices, interest rates, political stability and AI capital expenditure deserves particular attention. ING’s outlook suggests that 2027 may reward careful assessment of regional exposure rather than reliance on a single global growth narrative. Monitoring central-bank communication, European fiscal developments and the financing of AI infrastructure will be essential as these competing forces evolve. For a confidential discussion regarding your international banking arrangements and cross-border wealth structure, contact our senior advisory team.