Barclays has downgraded DexCom to Underweight from Equal Weight, cutting its price target to $71 from $80. The bank cited intensifying competition across Dexcom’s core insulin-intensive continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) segments, which it expects to weigh on valuation multiples through 2026 and 2027.
The move reflects a more cautious stance on near- to medium-term upside rather than a deterioration in Dexcom’s underlying technology.
Competition Becomes the Central Risk
Barclays highlighted that Dexcom is facing growing competitive pressure in its most profitable CGM segments, as rivals accelerate product launches and pricing strategies. As competition increases, the bank expects margin leverage and growth visibility to come under pressure, limiting the stock’s ability to command premium multiples.
In this environment, execution risk rises even for category leaders.
Diverging Analyst Views Persist
Not all analysts share Barclays’ caution. On January 9, Bernstein raised its price target to $86 from $84 while reiterating an Outperform rating, pointing to improving sentiment across U.S. healthcare equities as macro and policy uncertainty begins to ease.
Similarly, on January 7, RBC Capital Markets maintained a Buy rating on Dexcom with a price target of $85, signaling confidence in the company’s longer-term growth trajectory despite near-term noise.
Valuation Versus Long-Term Positioning
The contrasting calls underscore a familiar tension for high-quality healthcare franchises. Dexcom remains a global leader in CGM technology, but as penetration deepens and competition intensifies, the market is increasingly focused on how much growth is already priced in.
For Barclays, that balance has shifted toward caution. For others, the clearing of sector-wide headwinds supports a more constructive 2026 outlook.
Outlook
Dexcom now sits at a crossroads between structural growth in diabetes management and cyclical valuation pressure driven by competition. Near-term performance is likely to hinge on pricing discipline, market-share defense, and evidence that innovation can sustain differentiation in a more crowded CGM landscape.
For a confidential discussion on how medical technology exposure, competitive dynamics, and valuation risk can be assessed within a global portfolio allocation, contact our senior advisory team.
