SKN | Bank of America Projects a $3.2 Trillion Semiconductor Market as AI Infrastructure Demand Expands

Key Takeaways:

• Bank of America forecasts the global semiconductor market will reach $3.2 trillion by 2030, up from $1.7 trillion in 2026.
• BofA sees continued strength in customer orders, long-term agreements, capacity commitments and semiconductor pricing.
• The bank expects memory, core semiconductors, servers and wafer-fabrication equipment to represent major sources of market expansion.
• For sophisticated investors, BofA’s analysis suggests the semiconductor cycle is increasingly tied to contracted AI infrastructure demand rather than short-term sentiment alone.

Bank of America is taking a constructive long-term view of the global semiconductor industry, forecasting that the market could nearly double to $3.2 trillion by 2030 from $1.7 trillion in 2026. The projection comes as concerns over AI spending and the pace of infrastructure investment have increased, making BofA’s assessment an important institutional benchmark for the technology supply chain.

BofA Sees Semiconductor Demand Extending Beyond the Current AI Cycle

The central element of BofA’s analysis is that semiconductor demand remains supported by more than speculative expectations surrounding artificial intelligence. The bank points to continued strength in customer orders, long-term agreements, capacity commitments and semiconductor pricing.

According to the bank’s assessment, 2027 remains largely booked and contracted across compute, networking and memory vendors. BofA also expects supply conditions to remain tight into 2028, supported by demand for CPUs, XPU attach, new optics-based scale-up solutions and AI accelerators from multiple ASIC and GPU vendors.

Memory Becomes a Major Component of BofA’s Forecast

Memory represents one of the largest components of the bank’s projected expansion. BofA expects memory sales to increase from $937 billion in 2026 to $1.8 trillion by 2030.

Over the same period, core semiconductor sales are projected to rise from $739 billion to $1.35 trillion, while server-related semiconductor sales could increase from $359 billion to $848 billion. These projections indicate that BofA views AI infrastructure as a catalyst for broader semiconductor demand rather than a narrowly concentrated accelerator cycle.

Wafer-Fabrication Investment Adds Another Layer of Demand

BofA also expects semiconductor manufacturing investment to expand materially. Its forecast calls for wafer-fabrication equipment spending to reach $359.8 billion by 2030, compared with $155.9 billion in 2026.

For the bank, this reflects the supply-side requirements created by sustained demand. If customers continue committing capacity several years ahead, semiconductor manufacturers must expand production capabilities accordingly. That creates an additional layer of demand extending from chip designers and manufacturers to equipment suppliers.

How BofA Is Framing the AI Infrastructure Risk

The principal risk identified in the analysis is a slowdown in hyperscaler AI spending. A significant reduction in capital expenditure by major cloud companies could weaken demand assumptions across compute, networking and memory.

Nevertheless, BofA’s emphasis on contracted 2027 demand, capacity reservations and pricing suggests that the bank sees meaningful near-term visibility despite the debate surrounding AI development and infrastructure spending. For HNWI portfolios, the strategic implication is that semiconductor exposure increasingly requires assessment of contracted demand, capital intensity and supply constraints, not simply headline AI enthusiasm.

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