SKN | Barclays Initiates Technoprobe Coverage with Overweight Rating as AI Chip-Testing Demand Accelerates

Key Takeaways:

• Barclays initiated coverage of Technoprobe with an Overweight rating and a €40 price target, citing its dominant position in probe cards used to test artificial intelligence graphics processors.
• The bank estimates that the AI probe-card market could expand from approximately €1.7 billion in 2026 to €7.1 billion by 2030, creating substantial opportunities for specialized testing-equipment suppliers.
• Barclays identifies margin expansion and capacity growth as important drivers, while recognizing competitive pressure from FormFactor as a key risk to Technoprobe’s market position.

Barclays has initiated coverage of Italian semiconductor testing-equipment manufacturer Technoprobe with an Overweight rating and a €40 price target, positioning the company to benefit from rising demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. The bank’s assessment is based on Technoprobe’s strong position in probe cards, specialized components used to test semiconductor chips before packaging. Its research suggests that increasing complexity in AI processors could create a faster-growing market for testing equipment than for semiconductor volumes themselves.

Barclays Identifies Technoprobe’s Strategic Market Position

A central element of Barclays’ investment assessment is Technoprobe’s estimated market share. The company holds close to 100% of the probe-card market used for AI graphics chips, according to the bank, alongside approximately 60% of the market for probe cards serving leading-edge logic chips.

Probe cards connect semiconductor devices to testing equipment, allowing manufacturers to identify defective chips before they move into packaging. Barclays argues that increasingly sophisticated AI processors require longer and more frequent testing procedures. Consequently, demand for probe cards could grow faster than overall chip production, creating a structural opportunity for specialized suppliers.

Following discussions with more than 20 industry experts, Barclays estimates that the AI probe-card market could increase from approximately €1.7 billion in 2026 to €7.1 billion by 2030. Its model places Technoprobe’s potential 2030 revenue at approximately €3.5 billion, compared with the company’s own forecast of €2.8 billion. This difference reflects more optimistic assumptions, including higher memory-chip revenue and potential opportunities from co-packaged optics.

Barclays Sees Significant Scope for Margin Expansion

The bank’s positive assessment also considers Technoprobe’s improving profitability. Gross margin increased to 57% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, compared with 40% in the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Management’s guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 indicates a gross margin of 61.5%, with a range of two percentage points in either direction.

Barclays highlights that research, sales and administrative expenses have remained broadly flat for six quarters despite strong revenue growth. This operating leverage supports its expectation that EBITDA margin could increase from 32% in 2025 to 48% in 2026 and 53% in 2028. The bank’s earnings forecasts are also above consensus, with projected earnings per share of €0.86 for 2027 and €1.17 for 2028.

Capacity Investment and Competition Shape the Outlook

Technoprobe has increased its planned investment to approximately €350 million between the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and the first quarter of fiscal 2027, compared with an earlier plan of €240 million. The objective is to expand production capacity to at least €1.6 billion by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2027, from €1.4 billion. Barclays estimates a 46% return on invested capital and views the lower 2026 spending forecast relative to market consensus as a timing delay rather than a reduction in investment ambition.

However, Barclays also identifies FormFactor as an emerging competitive threat. The rival has qualified for AI graphics chips, and the bank expects its first meaningful market-share gains in 2027. Barclays’ model assumes Technoprobe’s share of this segment could decline to approximately 85% by 2028. An update on Technoprobe’s next capacity expansion plan, potentially in November, is another important catalyst identified by the bank.

What Barclays’ Research Signals for the Semiconductor Supply Chain

Barclays’ coverage highlights how the expansion of AI infrastructure is creating opportunities beyond chip designers and manufacturers, extending into specialized testing equipment. Its positive assessment rests on Technoprobe’s market position, operating leverage and ability to expand production capacity. Nevertheless, the €40 price target depends on the bank’s growth and margin assumptions, while competitive developments could affect the company’s longer-term market share. Investors monitoring this segment should therefore pay attention to capacity execution, quarterly margins, customer demand and FormFactor’s progress.

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