SKN | UBS Forecasts Deeper Copper Supply Deficit as Price Target Reaches $15,500 per Ton

Key Takeaways:

• UBS projects the global copper market deficit to widen to 379,000 metric tons in 2027, compared with 219,000 metric tons in 2026.
• The bank expects copper prices to reach $15,500 per metric ton in 2027 and continues to favor long positions in the metal.
• U.S. copper futures advanced on October 9, with the December 2026 contract settling at $6.6920 per pound, reflecting positive trading momentum ahead of the projected supply imbalance.

UBS expects the global copper market to face a more pronounced supply shortfall in 2027, reinforcing the bank’s constructive outlook for the industrial metal. Its forecast points to a deficit of 379,000 metric tons, up from an estimated 219,000 metric tons in 2026, as the anticipated gap between global supply and demand becomes a central factor in its price outlook.

UBS Sees Supply Constraints Supporting Higher Prices

The bank’s forecast represents a year-over-year increase of 160,000 metric tons in the projected market deficit. UBS expects copper to reach $15,500 per metric ton during 2027, with the widening imbalance underpinning its positive price assessment.

UBS continues to recommend maintaining long positions in copper, according to the report. It also views short-term price declines as potential opportunities to establish or increase exposure, reflecting its expectation that supply-demand conditions will remain supportive. These recommendations represent the bank’s market view rather than a guarantee of future price performance.

The projected deficit places the balance between available supply and demand at the center of the copper outlook. If the shortfall develops as expected, it could reinforce upward price pressure. However, the supplied report does not provide a detailed breakdown of the expected supply constraints, demand assumptions or production outlook underpinning UBS’s forecast.

Copper Futures Show Positive Trading Momentum

U.S. copper futures recorded gains on Friday, October 9, according to Associated Press market data. The December 2026 COMEX copper contract settled at $6.6920 per pound, up 12.35 cents on the session. The March 2027 contract settled at $6.8000 per pound, gaining 12.60 cents.

Further-dated contracts also posted gains. December 2027 copper futures settled at $7.0915 per pound, up 13.25 cents, while December 2028 futures settled at $7.4535 per pound, up 13.45 cents. These prices show gains across several maturities during the reported session, although a single trading day does not establish a sustained market trend or independently validate UBS’s longer-term forecast.

What Investors Should Monitor

UBS’s outlook places the projected widening of the supply deficit at the core of copper’s potential price trajectory through 2027. Investors monitoring the metal should assess whether the expected imbalance materializes and whether futures-market developments remain consistent with the bank’s outlook.

The key consideration is the difference between a forecast and a realized shortage. If the deficit expands as projected, it could support UBS’s $15,500-per-ton target; if the supply-demand balance proves less constrained, the price outlook may change. Copper’s path will therefore depend on how actual market conditions evolve relative to the assumptions behind the bank’s projections.

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