SKN | Barclays Reshapes Its European Exchange Outlook, Elevating Euronext and Downgrading Deutsche Boerse

Key Takeaways:

• Barclays upgraded Euronext from Equal Weight to Overweight and increased its price target from €160 to €210, identifying government bond trading as an underappreciated earnings driver.
• Barclays downgraded Deutsche Boerse from Overweight to Equal Weight, retaining its €320 price target after a share-price rally of almost 50% over the preceding 12 months.
• The bank expects Euronext’s fixed-income revenue to increase from €224 million in 2026 to €344 million in 2028, while raising its 2027 and 2028 earnings forecasts by 5% and 10%, respectively.

Barclays has made a significant adjustment to its European exchange-sector research, placing Euronext ahead of Deutsche Boerse in its relative assessment of growth and valuation. In its latest analysis, the British banking group upgraded Euronext while reducing its recommendation on Deutsche Boerse, reflecting different expectations for future earnings growth and the amount of potential already reflected in market prices. The changes, issued by Barclays analyst Grace Dargan, demonstrate how the bank is reassessing opportunities across European financial market infrastructure rather than applying a uniformly positive or negative view to the sector.

Barclays Identifies Underestimated Bond-Trading Growth

Barclays raised its Euronext recommendation to Overweight from Equal Weight and increased its price target to €210 from €160. Based on Euronext’s November 12 closing price of €166.20, the revised target implied potential upside of approximately 26%. The target was also reported as the highest among analysts covering the company.

The central argument is Euronext’s government bond trading business. Barclays forecasts fixed-income revenue to grow by approximately 24% annually between 2026 and 2028, increasing from €224 million to €344 million. Although fixed income represents around 10% of group revenue, Barclays considers its contribution to future earnings potentially greater than current market expectations suggest.

The bank’s revised estimates reflect this assessment. Barclays left its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast unchanged but raised its 2027 and 2028 estimates by 5% and 10%, respectively. Those forecasts place earnings approximately 3% and 6% above market consensus. Barclays also argued that investors had overreacted to weaker fixed-income trading volumes reported by Euronext in October.

Deutsche Boerse Downgrade Reflects Valuation Discipline

Barclays took a more cautious position on Deutsche Boerse, cutting its rating from Overweight to Equal Weight while maintaining its €320 price target. The decision followed a share-price increase of almost 50% over 12 months, bringing the valuation close to the bank’s existing target.

Deutsche Boerse continues to offer long-term structural growth opportunities, according to Barclays. However, the bank believes much of the company’s near-term growth potential is already reflected in its valuation. Deutsche Boerse trades at approximately 23 times projected 2027 earnings, compared with 19 times for Euronext. Barclays identified sustained market volatility as a risk to its more cautious stance because higher trading activity could support Deutsche Boerse’s earnings. October trading volumes were already 27% higher year over year.

Leadership Transition Adds Another Variable to Euronext’s Outlook

Barclays also identified the forthcoming leadership transition at Euronext as a potential catalyst. Incoming chief executive David Knibbe will succeed Stephane Boujnah, with the bank highlighting organic growth, core business development and capital allocation as priorities to monitor. Nevertheless, Barclays outlined risks to its upgraded view, including weaker trading volumes, lower product margins, rising costs and slower progress on Europe’s Savings and Investments Union.

For international wealth holders, the research highlights the importance of distinguishing between structural growth in market infrastructure and valuations that already incorporate optimistic expectations. Barclays’ recommendations are equity research assessments, not changes to its own banking operations or guarantees of future performance. The next indicators will be Euronext’s ability to convert bond-market activity into recurring revenue and Deutsche Boerse’s capacity to sustain earnings growth at its current valuation. For a confidential discussion regarding portfolio exposure to financial market infrastructure and cross-border wealth structures, contact our senior advisory team.