SKN | BNP Paribas Beats Q3 Profit Forecasts as Equities Trading Surges, Maintains 2026 Targets

Key Points:

• BNP Paribas reported net profit of €3.46 billion, up 13.5% year over year and ahead of the €3.23 billion analyst consensus.
• Equities and prime services revenue surged 50% to €1.46 billion, helping drive total revenue to €13.76 billion, while higher credit provisions weighed on parts of the bank’s commercial operations.
• The bank maintained its financial targets, announced a €1.3 billion share buyback for November, and expects its CET1 capital ratio to exceed 13% by year-end 2026.

BNP Paribas delivered stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, supported by exceptional growth in equities trading, but stopped short of raising its full-year targets. The French banking group reported net profit of €3.46 billion, an increase of 13.5% from a year earlier, while revenue reached €13.76 billion, exceeding the €13.50 billion analyst consensus. The results underscore the contribution of its markets business while highlighting credit costs and weaker performance in selected commercial activities.

Equities Trading Becomes a Major Earnings Driver

BNP Paribas’ equities and prime services business recorded a 50% increase in revenue to €1.46 billion, reflecting strong client demand across its equity products. This performance helped lift group revenue by 9.5%, while pre-tax profit rose 18.1% to €5.06 billion, above the €4.75 billion expected by analysts.

For the bank, the results demonstrate the earnings contribution of its capital-markets franchise. However, trading revenue can vary with client activity and market conditions. The quarter’s performance therefore provides evidence of current strength rather than a guarantee that the same growth rate will continue. BNP Paribas’ decision to retain its targets suggests management is maintaining its existing financial framework despite the earnings beat.

Credit Costs Pressure Commercial Banking Performance

The group’s cost of risk reached €964 million, compared with the €898 million analyst consensus. The bank attributed the increase mainly to higher provisions on loans that remain performing. The figure represented 39 basis points of customer loans, within BNP Paribas’ target of keeping the measure below 40 basis points for 2026.

Pressure was more visible in commercial, personal banking and services, where pre-tax profit fell 6.5% year over year to €2.04 billion. The division’s cost of risk increased to €836 million from €703 million. Revenue at the Arval and Leasing Solutions car-leasing businesses also declined 29.1%, reflecting pressure on used-car prices.

These differences across business lines matter: strong trading results supported group profitability, but higher credit provisions and weaker leasing revenue remain areas to monitor.

BNP Paribas Maintains Targets and Announces Share Buyback

BNP Paribas will launch a €1.3 billion share buyback in November. Its common equity tier 1 capital ratio stood at 12.9%, including the impact of the Athlon acquisition. The bank expects the ratio to exceed 13% by the end of 2026, supported in part by the planned sale of Moroccan subsidiary BMCI.

The bank reaffirmed its target for return on tangible equity of 12% in 2026 and above 13% in 2028. It also retained its cost-to-income ratio targets of approximately 60% in 2026 and below 56% in 2028, alongside average annual net profit growth of more than 10% from 2025 through 2028.

What Investors Should Monitor Next

The key test for BNP Paribas will be whether its markets business can continue supporting earnings while credit costs remain within management’s stated limits. Investors should also monitor progress toward the bank’s capital and efficiency targets, the execution of the share buyback, and the contribution from planned portfolio changes. The latest quarter demonstrates strong earnings momentum, but delivery against the bank’s multi-year objectives will depend on performance across its broader business rather than trading revenue alone.

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