SKN | Goldman Sachs Identifies Its Preferred Australian Gold Stocks as Cost and Growth Prospects Diverge

Key Takeaways:

• Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on Newmont and Northern Star, citing valuation, cost performance and longer-term production growth prospects.
• The investment bank assigns a Neutral rating to Evolution Mining, highlighting its exposure to potential declines in copper by-product prices and recent production disruptions.
• Goldman’s analysis emphasizes that operational costs, project execution and commodity-price exposure are increasingly important differentiators among major gold producers.

Goldman Sachs has identified three large-cap Australian gold stocks as important points of comparison in a sector facing renewed market pressure. Its latest research distinguishes between companies with comparatively attractive valuations, improving cost profiles and visible production expansion, and those facing greater operating or commodity-related risks. The assessments come as gold prices have reversed earlier gains, placing additional attention on the ability of mining companies to protect margins and deliver sustainable production.

Newmont: Goldman Sees Attractive Valuation and Cost Discipline

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Newmont, pointing to its valuation and recent cost performance. The company’s third-quarter adjusted earnings reached $2.20 per share, exceeding the $1.94 consensus estimate. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) were $1,454 per ounce, prompting management to reduce its full-year cost guidance to approximately $1,520 per ounce from $1,680.

Newmont also returned $1.9 billion to shareholders during the quarter. However, Goldman’s positive assessment must be considered alongside near-term cost pressures. Newmont expects fourth-quarter AISC to increase to approximately $1,900 per ounce, reflecting higher sustaining capital expenditure and lower silver output from its Peñasquito operation. The company also anticipates another increase in unit costs in 2027. These factors remain important to the sustainability of its margin performance.

Northern Star: Production Expansion Supports Goldman’s Buy Rating

Goldman Sachs also maintains a Buy rating on Northern Star. Its assessment recognizes the company’s relative valuation re-rating, supported partly by merger and acquisition valuations elsewhere in the sector, alongside broader growth prospects.

The investment bank identifies the Hemi project in Western Australia as a major contributor to Northern Star’s expansion strategy. The project became part of the company following its A$5 billion all-scrip acquisition of De Grey Mining, completed in May 2025. Further growth is expected from the expansion of the Fimiston mill at the KCGM operations, scheduled for commissioning in early FY27.

Northern Star has established a production target of approximately 2.5 million ounces annually by FY29. It also reaffirmed its annual outlook in its September-quarter report despite lower gold sales. For Goldman, the planned production growth provides an important part of the investment case, although successful project execution remains essential.

Evolution Mining: Copper Exposure Drives a More Cautious Assessment

Goldman Sachs takes a different position on Evolution Mining, assigning the company a Neutral rating. Its principal concern is the potential downside if copper by-product prices weaken. Evolution realized a record A$20,876 per tonne for copper during the September quarter, approximately 8% higher than the previous quarter. It produced 18,000 tonnes, primarily from its Ernest Henry and Northparkes operations.

At the same time, gold production declined to 154,000 ounces from 180,000 ounces in the June quarter, reflecting weather conditions and contractor-related disruptions. The combination of lower gold output and dependence on copper by-product economics creates a different risk profile from the companies carrying Goldman’s Buy ratings.

What Goldman’s Differentiated Ratings Signal

Goldman Sachs’ analysis illustrates why exposure to the same commodity does not necessarily produce equivalent investment prospects. Newmont’s cost performance and valuation, Northern Star’s expansion pipeline and Evolution’s copper-price sensitivity lead to distinct research conclusions. For institutional investors and global wealth holders, the distinction reinforces the importance of examining operating economics and project execution rather than treating gold producers as a single market category.

Going forward, attention will remain on gold-price stability, cost guidance, production delivery and the commissioning of Northern Star’s expansion projects. Newmont’s expected cost increases and Evolution’s exposure to copper prices will also be important indicators. Goldman’s current ratings provide a framework for understanding these differences, but the underlying assumptions remain subject to changing commodity markets and company execution.

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