SKN | HSBC Raises Its 2026 Brent Forecast as the Hormuz Crisis Extends Market Tightness

Key Takeaways:

• HSBC raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel from $80 as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz persists.
• The bank expects oil markets to remain tight until approximately mid-2027 as flows through the critical shipping route recover gradually.
• HSBC’s base case assumes a fragile U.S.-Iran understanding, while its more severe “stalemate” scenario places Brent as high as $120 per barrel.
• The bank’s analysis highlights shipping security, insurance costs and physical oil flows as central variables in its energy-market outlook.

HSBC has materially revised its oil-market outlook, raising its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel from $80 as the disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues. The bank’s latest assessment reflects a market in which physical supply remains constrained and the path toward normalization has become more uncertain.

HSBC Raises Its Brent Forecast on Prolonged Supply Constraints

HSBC analyst Kim Fustier expects oil markets to remain difficult to rebalance until mid-2027. The bank estimates that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will recover only gradually, reaching approximately 8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026 compared with around 6 million barrels per day currently.

Even if current flows are closer to 10 million barrels per day, as some market tracking suggests, the level would remain substantially below the approximately 19–20 million barrels per day that moved through the chokepoint before the conflict. For HSBC, that gap is central to the revised price outlook.

The Bank’s Base Case Remains Fragile

HSBC’s central scenario assumes a fragile understanding between the United States and Iran rather than a definitive resolution. Fustier expects continued uncertainty surrounding shipping security and insurance, both of which can influence the economics and availability of physical energy transportation.

Under HSBC’s forecast, Hormuz flows gradually increase toward approximately 9.5 million barrels per day by the middle of 2027. The implication is straightforward: even with gradual normalization, the oil market could remain structurally tight for much of the coming year.

HSBC Keeps a $120 Oil Scenario on the Table

The bank is also explicitly assessing a more adverse outcome. If diplomacy fails and oil flows remain constrained at current levels, HSBC estimates that Brent could reach $120 per barrel. This is not the bank’s base case, but it establishes the potential magnitude of the risk embedded in the current geopolitical environment.

That distinction is important for sophisticated wealth holders. HSBC is not forecasting a sustained $120 oil price; it is identifying the level that could emerge if the physical supply disruption becomes significantly more persistent.

What HSBC’s Revision Signals for Global Wealth

For internationally exposed families and businesses, HSBC’s analysis places energy-market resilience alongside monetary and currency considerations. Prolonged oil tightness can influence inflation, transportation costs, corporate margins and central-bank policy, potentially affecting both cash management and broader international asset structures.

The bank’s revised forecast therefore represents more than a higher commodity-price estimate. It reflects HSBC’s assessment that restoring normal energy flows will take time, leaving geopolitical developments, shipping security and physical supply volumes as the variables to watch most closely.

For a confidential discussion regarding your cross-border banking structure, liquidity positioning and international wealth strategy, contact our senior advisory team.