SKN | ING Group Beats Earnings Estimates, Raises Outlook as Customer Growth and Capital Strength Accelerate

Key Takeaways:

• ING Group reported second-quarter earnings of $0.79 per share, beating analyst estimates of $0.75, while raising its financial outlook for 2026 and 2027.
• The bank now expects total income above €24.5 billion in 2026 and more than €26 billion in 2027, with return on tangible equity (ROTE) projected above 15% and 16%, respectively.
• Strong customer growth, higher fee income, disciplined cost management, and continued capital returns supported the bank’s positive outlook despite revenue coming in below consensus expectations.

ING Delivers Earnings Beat and Stronger Forward Guidance

ING Group reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, posting earnings per share of $0.79 compared with the consensus estimate of $0.75. While reported revenue of $4.76 billion fell below analysts’ expectations of $6.99 billion, management raised its outlook for both 2026 and 2027, reflecting confidence in the bank’s long-term earnings trajectory.

The upgraded guidance underscores continued momentum across ING’s retail and wholesale banking franchises as customer activity, lending, and fee-based businesses continue to expand.

Customer Growth Continues to Drive Performance

Commercial activity remained robust during the quarter as ING added approximately 377,000 mobile primary customers. Lending and customer deposits both expanded at annualized rates exceeding 8%, while fee income increased 14% year over year, reflecting higher customer engagement across multiple business segments.

The bank also reported improving operating leverage, with total income growing faster than operating expenses over the past year. Costs increased modestly while overall headcount declined, supporting stronger efficiency across the organization.

Second-quarter return on tangible equity reached 17%, exceeding the bank’s long-term profitability targets.

Outlook Raised for 2026 and 2027

Management increased its financial guidance, now expecting total income to exceed €24.5 billion in 2026 and surpass €26 billion in 2027. The bank also raised its profitability outlook, projecting return on tangible equity above 15% in 2026 and above 16% in 2027.

Capital management also remained a strength. Wholesale Banking reduced risk-weighted assets through optimization initiatives, helping lift the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio to 13.1%, providing continued flexibility for dividends and share repurchases.

ING also announced a dividend of €0.458 per share, reinforcing its commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Credit Quality Remains Resilient

Credit performance remained relatively healthy during the quarter. Risk costs totaled €279 million, equivalent to 15 basis points of lending, remaining below the bank’s through-the-cycle average of 20 basis points.

Management noted that most provisions related to Stage 3 loans, while the lending margin declined modestly as loan growth was concentrated in lower-risk customer segments.

Investors Monitor Revenue Mix

Despite the earnings beat and upgraded outlook, investors continue to evaluate the revenue shortfall reported during the quarter. While profitability benefited from disciplined cost management and customer growth, revenue below analyst expectations may remain an area of focus in future reporting periods.

Market participants will also monitor the bank’s continued expansion in lending, customer acquisition, digital banking, and specialized financing opportunities, including management’s expectation that its defense financing portfolio could expand significantly over the coming years.

Closing Insights

ING Group’s latest quarterly results demonstrate resilient operational execution supported by strong customer growth, improving profitability, disciplined capital management, and an upgraded earnings outlook. While revenue came in below consensus forecasts, the bank’s strengthened guidance and continued shareholder returns suggest management remains confident in delivering sustainable long-term growth as it continues expanding across its core European banking markets.

For a confidential discussion regarding European banking strategy, capital management, digital banking transformation, institutional finance, or long-term banking sector investment opportunities, contact our senior advisory team.