SKN | Morgan Stanley Maintains Its $300 SpaceX Valuation as Market Weakness Tests Its AI and Space Investment Thesis

Key Takeaways:

• Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated his Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX on November 13, implying approximately 116% upside from the November 13 closing price of $139.11.
• The bank’s valuation thesis rests on continued earnings growth, Starship development and the expansion of SpaceX’s connectivity and AI infrastructure businesses.
• The target depends heavily on SpaceX achieving its projected 2028 normalized earnings per share of $5.99, with substantial capital expenditure remaining a key execution risk.

Morgan Stanley is maintaining a constructive position on SpaceX despite a substantial decline in the company’s share price from its June peak. Analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $300 price target on November 13, signaling that the bank considers the recent market weakness excessive relative to the company’s longer-term earnings potential. The assessment comes as SpaceX expands its satellite connectivity, launch and artificial intelligence infrastructure operations, while committing increasingly large amounts of capital to future development.

Morgan Stanley Maintains Its Valuation Despite Market Weakness

SpaceX closed at $139.11 on November 13, approximately 31% below its June closing high but still slightly above its $135 initial public offering price. Jonas’s $300 target represents approximately 116% potential appreciation from that closing level.

The analyst’s position is significant because the valuation does not depend primarily on a higher earnings multiple. According to the TIKR report, SpaceX currently trades at approximately 51 times projected 2027 earnings, while the $300 target would represent roughly 50 times estimated 2028 earnings. In other words, Morgan Stanley’s valuation framework assumes that the company’s earnings expand sufficiently to support the target without requiring a substantial re-rating of its valuation multiple.

This makes the sustainability of earnings forecasts central to the investment thesis. Consensus normalized earnings per share estimates have improved from a projected loss of $0.30 for 2026 in October to positive earnings of $0.17. Estimates for 2027 and 2028 currently stand at $2.74 and $5.99, respectively.

Capital Expenditure Creates a Significant Execution Challenge

SpaceX’s expansion is generating substantial financial demands. Third-quarter revenue increased 161% to $14.6 billion, supported by growth in its Super Intelligence segment. However, capital expenditure reached $19.6 billion, exceeding quarterly revenue. Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen indicated that fourth-quarter capital expenditure could increase to between $35 billion and $40 billion.

The company also announced plans for more than $74 billion in data-centre infrastructure across Texas and Arizona. These commitments demonstrate the scale of SpaceX’s ambitions but also raise questions about funding requirements, project execution and the timing of future returns.

For Morgan Stanley’s valuation to remain credible, expanding infrastructure must eventually translate into sustainable earnings growth rather than simply higher operating capacity and financing requirements.

Starship Remains a Major Catalyst in Morgan Stanley’s Thesis

Jonas has identified successful Starship development and booster recovery as potentially transformative milestones. Reusability could improve launch economics and support the expansion of SpaceX’s broader satellite operations. The importance of connectivity is already visible in the company’s financial performance: the segment, primarily driven by Starlink, generated $2.37 billion of SpaceX’s $2.79 billion in third-quarter operating income.

However, the November 13 flight produced a mixed operational outcome. The booster missed its planned tower catch and subsequently burst into flames in the Gulf, while the spacecraft reached orbit, deployed 26 Starlink satellites and continued its planned mission. The outcome demonstrates technical progress but also highlights the remaining challenges involved in achieving reliable and repeatable recovery operations.

What Must Happen for the $300 Target to Hold?

Morgan Stanley’s position ultimately depends on the relationship between earnings growth, capital efficiency and successful execution across SpaceX’s businesses. The $300 valuation requires the company’s projected 2028 earnings to remain achievable despite elevated investment requirements and potential operational setbacks.

For sophisticated investors, the relevant indicators extend beyond share-price recovery. Starship reusability, Starlink profitability, AI infrastructure spending and the company’s ability to convert capital expenditure into recurring earnings will determine whether the valuation assumptions remain defensible. Morgan Stanley’s maintained target reflects confidence in that trajectory, but the execution burden remains substantial. For a confidential discussion regarding exposure to private and publicly traded technology companies and cross-border portfolio structures, contact our senior advisory team.