SKN | UBS Raises 2030 Global Market Share Forecast for Chinese Automakers to 37%

Key Takeaways:

• UBS has raised its forecast for Chinese automakers’ global market share to 37% by 2030, up from its previous estimate of 35%.
• UBS also increased its European market-share forecast to 20% from 18%, reflecting faster-than-expected gains by Chinese brands.
• The bank’s Evidence Lab research shows growing consumer acceptance, with 36% of European respondents willing to consider a Chinese-brand electric vehicle.
• UBS identifies a wide range of outcomes, with Chinese automakers potentially reaching 45% globally in an upside scenario or 33% in a downside case.

UBS has materially strengthened its assessment of Chinese automakers’ international expansion, raising its forecast for their global automotive market share to 37% by 2030. The revised projection, up from 35%, reflects the bank’s assessment that Chinese manufacturers are gaining consumer acceptance and expanding internationally at a faster pace than previously expected.

For UBS, the development represents more than a forecast revision. It demonstrates how the bank’s research platform is identifying a structural shift in global automotive competition and reassessing the potential scale of Chinese manufacturers’ overseas presence.

UBS Raises Its Assessment of Chinese Automotive Expansion

The most significant adjustment is UBS’s increase in its projected global market share for Chinese automakers to 37% by 2030, compared with approximately 22% during the first half of 2026. The bank has simultaneously raised its European forecast to 20% from 18%, indicating that Europe is becoming an increasingly important component of its international growth thesis.

UBS currently estimates Chinese brands hold roughly 8% of the European market. The bank’s revised outlook suggests that recent market-share gains have exceeded its earlier expectations, prompting a reassessment of the trajectory through the end of the decade.

UBS Evidence Lab Identifies Stronger Consumer Acceptance

A key component of UBS’s analysis comes from its UBS Evidence Lab, which surveyed 12,000 consumers. The research found that 36% of European respondents would consider purchasing an electric vehicle from a Chinese brand.

UBS identifies value for money as the leading attraction, cited by 66% of prospective Chinese EV buyers globally. Advanced technology, including digital functionality and autonomous-driving capabilities, ranked second at 61%. For UBS, these findings suggest that Chinese manufacturers are competing on both pricing and product sophistication.

UBS Maps a Wider Range of Outcomes

UBS is not presenting 37% as a fixed endpoint. Its scenario analysis places Chinese automakers’ global share as high as 45% in an upside case and as low as 33% under a downside scenario. In Europe, the corresponding range is 30% to 15%.

The bank therefore places considerable importance on regulatory and commercial execution. European tariffs, local-content requirements, aftersales infrastructure and corporate-fleet penetration could determine how much of the projected expansion ultimately materializes.

What UBS’s Revision Signals for Global Capital

The broader significance of UBS’s work is the bank’s recognition that Chinese automotive expansion is becoming a global competitive variable, rather than a predominantly domestic Chinese story. The forecast places particular pressure on mass-market manufacturers while suggesting that the competitive landscape will increasingly depend on technology, pricing efficiency and international distribution.

For internationally diversified wealth, UBS’s revised forecast is useful as a strategic indicator of where industrial competition may reshape corporate earnings, supply chains and long-term capital allocation. The key variable remains execution: whether Chinese automakers can convert consumer acceptance into durable international market share.

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