SKN | Wells Fargo Faces Q3 Earnings Test as Lending Income Growth Meets Mortgage Pressure

Key Takeaways:

• Wells Fargo is expected to report third-quarter 2026 revenue of $22.15 billion, up 3.3% year over year, with earnings per share forecast at $1.85, an increase of 6.9%.
• Net interest income is projected to rise 5.7% to $12.63 billion, supported by lending activity and stabilized deposit and funding costs.
• Mortgage banking revenue remains under pressure from mortgage rates near 7% and persistent affordability constraints, with fees expected to decline 9.9% year over year.

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on October 13, with investors assessing whether lending income can sustain earnings growth amid persistent pressure on mortgage activity. The results will offer insight into the bank’s ability to maintain revenue momentum while managing funding costs and a challenging housing market.

Net Interest Income Remains the Primary Earnings Support

The Zacks Consensus Estimate puts Wells Fargo’s third-quarter revenue at 22.15billion,representing3.3%year-over-yeargrowth.Theearningsestimatehasedgedhigheroverthepastsevendaysto1.85 per share, implying a 6.9% increase from the prior-year quarter.

The bank enters the reporting period with a positive recent earnings record. Wells Fargo exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the past four quarters and missed once, delivering an average earnings surprise of 7.41%. Its second-quarter 2026 results also surpassed expectations, supported by higher net interest and non-interest income, lower provisions, loan growth and improved deposits.

For the third quarter, net interest income (NII) is expected to reach $12.63 billion, up 5.7% year over year. Commercial and industrial loan demand remained healthy during the first two months of the quarter, according to the Federal Reserve data cited by Zacks, while consumer and real estate lending remained steady. These trends, alongside stabilized deposit and funding costs, are expected to support interest income.

The Federal Reserve’s September rate increase of 25 basis points, which lifted the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%, is unlikely to have materially affected third-quarter net interest income or margins because it came late in the period. Loan growth momentum may also have moderated after a strong first half, making the composition of lending activity and funding costs important indicators for investors.

Mortgage Banking Faces a More Difficult Operating Environment

Non-interest revenue presents a potential offset to the expected improvement in lending income. Mortgage rates remained near 7% during the quarter, while affordability constraints continued to weigh on home purchases and refinancing. These conditions are expected to have limited Wells Fargo’s mortgage banking activity.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate places mortgage banking revenue at $241.39 million, a 9.9% decline from the year-ago quarter. The projected contraction highlights the uneven nature of the bank’s earnings outlook: stronger net interest income may support overall growth, but mortgage-related weakness could restrain the contribution from non-interest businesses.

What Investors Should Watch in the Results

Wells Fargo’s October 13 report will be assessed not only against consensus estimates but also for evidence that its core lending franchise can sustain growth. Net interest income, loan trends, deposit and funding costs, and mortgage banking revenue will be central to evaluating the quality of quarterly performance.

A result above expectations could reinforce confidence in the bank’s earnings trajectory, particularly if interest income remains resilient without a material deterioration in other revenue sources. Conversely, weaker mortgage activity or slower lending growth could temper the outlook even if earnings meet forecasts. For investors, the key question is whether Wells Fargo can translate lending strength into durable profitability while navigating persistent housing-market constraints.

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