SKN  | Goldman Sachs Leads Wall Street Equities Trading Race as Banks Prepare Q3 Earnings

Key Takeaways:

• Goldman Sachs is projected to generate approximately $5.1 billion in third-quarter equities-trading revenue, narrowly ahead of Morgan Stanley at $4.9 billion and JPMorgan Chase at $4.5 billion.
• Combined equities-trading revenue across major Wall Street banks is expected to approach $19 billion, while fixed-income trading revenue at five major U.S. banks is forecast to decline to more than $19 billion from over $21 billion in the second quarter.
• A roughly 10% year-over-year decline in announced third-quarter mergers and acquisitions points to softer investment-banking activity, making trading performance and management guidance critical indicators for upcoming earnings.

Goldman Sachs Emerges as the Expected Equities Trading Leader

Goldman Sachs is positioned to lead Wall Street’s largest banks in equities-trading revenue for the third quarter of 2026, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The bank is expected to generate approximately $5.1 billion, narrowly ahead of Morgan Stanley’s projected $4.9 billion.

JPMorgan Chase is forecast to record around $4.5 billion in equities-trading revenue, while Bank of America is expected to generate approximately $2.6 billion. Collectively, equities-trading revenue across major U.S. banks is projected to approach $19 billion.

The estimates suggest that equity markets remained an important earnings engine during the quarter, even as analysts anticipate less uniform performance following a particularly strong second quarter across the industry.

For Goldman Sachs, the projected leadership reinforces the importance of its trading franchise to near-term earnings. However, these figures remain forecasts rather than reported results, and the eventual ranking will depend on the banks’ disclosures.

Fixed-Income Trading Faces a More Difficult Environment

The outlook for fixed-income trading is less favorable. Revenue across the fixed-income businesses of five major U.S. banks is expected to exceed $19 billion in the third quarter, down from more than $21 billion in the second quarter.

The source attributes the expected sequential decline to higher interest rates weighing on trading activity. This divergence between equities and fixed income illustrates why aggregate trading revenue alone may provide an incomplete picture of bank performance.

For investors assessing Goldman Sachs and its competitors, the composition of trading income matters alongside the headline figures. Strong equities activity may cushion weaker fixed-income results, but the degree of offset will only become clear when banks publish their quarterly numbers.

Slower Deal Activity Adds Pressure to Capital-Markets Revenue

Investment banking presents another area of uncertainty. Bloomberg data cited in the source indicates that the value of announced mergers and acquisitions declined approximately 10% year over year during the third quarter.

A weaker deal environment can affect advisory fees and the broader capital-markets pipeline. Although trading activity may remain resilient, slower mergers and acquisitions could limit growth elsewhere in investment banking.

The earnings outlook therefore depends on more than whether Goldman maintains its projected lead in equities. Investors will also need to evaluate investment-banking fees, fixed-income performance and management commentary on prospective transactions.

Investors Enter Earnings Season With Cautious Optimism

Market performance ahead of the reporting period was relatively constructive. Goldman Sachs shares rose approximately 0.6% in Friday premarket trading, matching the gains reported for Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan advanced around 0.5%, while Bank of America gained approximately 0.3%.

These moves suggest that investors were not uniformly positioning for a weak quarter. Nevertheless, premarket share-price changes do not establish how the stocks will react once earnings and forward guidance become available.

The critical question is whether strong equities trading can offset softer fixed-income performance and reduced deal activity. Goldman’s expected trading leadership provides a potential advantage, but a broader deterioration across capital markets could limit the benefit.

Closing Insights

Goldman Sachs enters the third-quarter reporting period with the strongest projected equities-trading revenue among the major U.S. banks. Its estimated $5.1 billion contribution could support earnings, although the expected decline in fixed-income revenue and weaker merger activity complicate the outlook.

For investors and family offices evaluating financial-sector exposure, the most useful indicators will be the final equities and fixed-income results, investment-banking fees and management’s assessment of the deal pipeline. Goldman may outperform its peers in equities trading, but the durability of that advantage will depend on the broader mix of capital-markets activity.

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